Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
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Ṁ4509Mar 1
22%
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Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9053/new-covid-19-cases-in-mainland-china/
I'll resolve this on or around March 15 by taking an average of the last 7 days of February for "China" on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases.
Jan 14, 7:18pm: #China #Covid #CovidZero
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I'm out of M$ but seems like this should still be much lower based on related markets like https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9053/new-covid-19-cases-in-mainland-china/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
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