
"Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?"
Mini
1
Ṁ30Dec 31
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
This is question #14 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
60% chance
Will China report more than 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases for any single day before May 2022?
36% chance
Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
22% chance
[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
80% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance
"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
44% chance
Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
88% chance
"Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?"
54% chance
Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
46% chance
"Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?"
58% chance