Will there be at least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US in 2022?
Mini
10
Ṁ30kJan 1
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
34% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
50% chance
"Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?"
67% chance
Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022
25% chance
Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
88% chance
Will the Biden administration set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more in 2022?
69% chance
Will the world experience a solar storm with significantly negative "EMP" effects in 2022?
8% chance
Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
27% chance
January 2023: Will weekly jobless initial claims exceed 220,000?
50% chance