[ACX2024] Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
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Jan 2
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Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if credible sources report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025.

The resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities.

Leadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. It is sufficient for OpenAI to define Sutskever's role explicitly as "leading," but it is not necessary.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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