Will it rain tomorrow?
Mini
1
Ṁ100
Jun 17
21%
chance
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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Constant function market maker x * y = k # YES in pool * # NO in pool = Constant 100 * 100 = 10,000 <= constant
Y * N = k
10000 / (100 - 50) = 200 50Y * 200N = 10,000 200Y * 50N = 10,000
Q: If you spend $50 on yes shares, will you get: a. Fewer than 50 YES? b. 50 YES? c. More than 50 YES?
David: to take out YES shares, the algorithm is going to need to keep the NO shares in the same Provide a certain number of NO shares to compensate for the YES shares you're receiving Should get less than 50 YES shares?
starting probability: 50% example: If I put in 100YES, I get 50N shares 200Y * 50N = 10,000 ending probability: higher or lower than 50%? PROB = NO / (YES + NO) 20% = 50 / (200 + 50)
1 mana is always convertible to 1 YES and 1 NO
Putting in 100 Mana, how does it get broken down into YES and NO shares? 100 YES and 100 NO shares If I put in 100 YES shares into the pool: 200 YES * 50 NO = 10000 Pool spits out 50 NO I end up with 100 NO + 50 NO = 150 NO for the price of M$100!
Maniswap: Y ^ p * N ^ (1 - p) = k What is p? p is the starting probability of the market.
200 * 200 = 40,000; sqrt(40,000) = 200 liquidity has doubled => can put in twice the amount of money to get to the same %
What is selling? I have 150 NO shares; have to return some, but not NO shares! 50 NO : 200 Y 100 : 100 = 10k 50 + 50 NO : (200 - 100)Y = 10k then you have 100Y + 100 N = M$100
predicts NO
A * B * C = k A * B * C * D .... = k when someone submits a new answer.... inject liquidity so K becomes larger too

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