Will inflation be 0.6% or higher in January?
Will inflation be 0.6% or higher in January?
Mini
6
Ṁ441Feb 10
83%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will be resolved based on the CPI change for January 2022, which will be released in a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Feb 10th: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
For context, November's inflation was 0.8%, and December's was 0.5%.
#Inflation #CPI #Economics
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will the US inflation rate for 2022 be lower than 6.8% ?
62% chance
Will inflation in the US will average under three percent for 2022?
80% chance
[Metaculus] Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
59% chance
"Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4% in 2023?"
41% chance
[ACX2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?
50% chance
What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on February 1?
64% chance
January 2023: Will weekly jobless initial claims exceed 220,000?
50% chance
"Will the US unemployment rate (now 3.7%) be above 4% in November 2023?"
50% chance