Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
Mini
2
Ṁ186Jan 1
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
39% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
50% chance
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
62% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
50% chance
Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022
42% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
50% chance
When will Russia invade the Ukraine?
[ACX2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
59% chance
Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
27% chance